星期二, 七月 07, 2009

Government debt, a big headache

According to Beijing Budget Gap on WSJ.com:

...,total government debt in China this year will reach roughly 65% of GDP. This does not include unfunded pension liabilities, a bane of governments everywhere.

This is included the hidden debts holding by local governments. Considering their the bad fiscal outlook, most of these debts will not repayed. The interest rate for government bonds will go up, even without inflation.
And, the tax will go up too. To SME, the future is harder, with economy not recovering soon. The only benefit goes to state-owned companies. They got the stimulus projects to strength their business, they got bank loans to improve their financial condition, they will dominate the economy again.

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