The huge stimulus plan and the lending boom are not saving Chinese economy. They are making the situation worse. Big state owned companies got most stimulus projects and bank loans, leaving millions small private companies struggling with operating cash and business decreasing.
Chinese SME cannot get loans from banks. It was a big problem to the economy because SME contribute the most to growth. They also hire the most. The government always talking about to improve the access to loans. They miss the point. It is interest rate which stops bank lend to SME. The government puts upper limit on interest rate. Banks cannot charge more to cover the higher risk of SME. So they just give up doing business with most of SME.
Most of stimulus projects are bulidng infrastructures like rail-way, expressway, and harbor. The orders all go to big state-owned companies. SME can only get some peanuts.
With huge stimulus plan, Chinese government debt will reach 65% of GDP. Acutally it is in deficit already. The only way to pay back the debt is raising more tax. Who will pay it. Most will come from SME, if they are still on business.
What is so awful is the government robbing the SME, and give the money to state-owned companies. It is not saving the economy, but robbing SME and improving the monopoly status of state-owned companies.
It is almost like old days, even better now, to the privileged in party.
星期六, 七月 11, 2009
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